July 18, 2005

USDA: World agricultural supply and demand estimates
 

Projected U.S. 2005/06 ending stocks of wheat are up 81 million bushels from last month due to larger beginning stocks and higher production. Projected 2005/06 use is unchanged from last month but is down 118 million bushels from 2004. 

Projected 2005/06 global wheat production is down fractionally from last month, use is nearly unchanged, trade is up, and stocks are down slightly. Foreign production is down 1.7 million tons. Projected global imports are up 1.75 million tons.

Forecast beginning stocks of 2005/06 corn are down 100 million bushels from last month. Projected 2005/06 corn production is down 200 million bushels from June.

The outlook for 2005/06 feed grain use is unchanged from last month. Global imports and exports are little changed. Global ending stocks drop 9 million tons from last month and are down 19 million from 2004/05. The largest stock declines occur in the United States, Canada, and the EU-25.

U.S. oilseed ending stocks for 2005/06 are projected at 7.0 million tons, down 1.1 million tons from last month. U.S. oilseed production is projected at 89.1 million tons, down 0.1 million tons.

Soybean production is projected at 2,890 million bushels (78.7 million tons), down 5 million bushels from last month because planted and harvested area are below the June projections.

Global oilseed production for 2005/06 is increased 1.7 million tons to 378.7 million tons. Foreign production is projected up 1.8 million tons, more than offsetting a small reduction for the United States. U.S. soybean crush for 2004/05 is projected at 1,690 million bushels, up 15 million bushels from last month. Ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 290 million bushels, down 30 million bushels.

The total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2005 and 2006 are raised slightly. Higher pork and broiler production in the second quarter of 2005 and higher forecast broilers in the third quarter offset lower second quarter beef output. In 2006, production is raised because of stronger pork and broiler output. 

Foreign demand for U.S. pork and broiler is firm. Pork exports are increased in 2005 and broilers raised in 2005 and 2006. Pork imports are expected lower this year and next. Forecast for cattle and hog prices are reduced from a month ago. Milk production in 2005 and 2006 is expected to be higher than last month as both the number of cows and milk per cow are increased.

For the full USDA report, click here.