July 17, 2012

Pakistan's 2012-13 cotton production forecast down

Pakistan's 2012-13 cotton production forecast down 3% from last month at 9.7 million bales (480-pound bales) and down 8.5% from last year, according to USDA.

Area harvested is estimated at three million hectares, down 3.2% from last month, and down 6.3% from last year. Yield is estimated at 704 kilogrammes per hectare, up 0.3% from last month, but down 2.4% from last year.

Cotton sowing is almost complete in most regions. There has been a slow start to the 2012-13 planting season in part due to delayed and less-than adequate pre-monsoon rainfall. Satellite observations also indicated low water levels in most reservoirs resulting in shortage of irrigation supplies.

The Indus River System Authority reported a 15% water shortage for this year's summer sowing season. In some areas the drier-than normal conditions have also affected early plant growth and development. In Pakistan the monsoon rainfall typically starts in early July and continues through September.

The monsoon season accounts for about 70% of the total annual precipitation. The Pakistan Metrological Department has issued a forecast of a normal monsoon season, which is expected to peak in July. The extent and distribution of monsoon rainfall during the July-September period is critical in determining the production of kharif season crops (cotton, rice, millet, sorghum, corn, and sugarcane).

Approximately 80% of the total Pakistan cotton crop is produced in Punjab province. According to recent local reports, at the end of June planted area was 7% lower than the same period last year. Last season (2011-12) Pakistan witnessed record cotton area due to favourable planting conditions in Punjab and Sindh.