July 16, 2012

 

Canada's 2012-13 rapeseed harvest to surpass last year's record

 

 

Due to larger plantings and mostly favourable summer weather, Canadian farmers will blow away last year's rapeseed harvest record, according to a Reuters poll of 17 analysts and traders.

 

Rapeseed production will reach 16 million tonnes in 2012-13, setting a record high for the second straight year and beating last year's production by 13%, based on the poll's average estimate.

 

The all-wheat harvest will come in around 26.8 million tonnes, up 6% from 2011-12 to the highest level in three years, due to greater production of both spring wheat and durum.

 

Canada is the biggest producer and exporter of rapeseed, nosing out China's output last year. It is the top exporter of spring wheat, durum and oats.

 

The poll shows industry is more optimistic about prospects for rapeseed and slightly more hopeful on all-wheat than Agriculture Canada and Agricultural-Food.

 

The government department last month estimated rapeseed production at 15.1 million tonnes and the wheat harvest at 26.7 million tonnes, but is expected to update its estimates within days.

 

Statistics Canada will give its first estimates of yield and production, based on a farmer survey, on August 22.

 

With new-crop November rapeseed futures up by nearly one-quarter in 2012, farmers had ample reason for planting more of the oilseed, and weather has been mostly favourable, with rain in June followed by July heat.

 

Those conditions have analysts estimating a rapeseed yield of 35 bushels per acre, which would be the second highest of all time.

 

"We tend to get good yields if we get it in early," said Marlene Boersch, analyst at Mercantile Consulting. "Rapeseed was well-established."

 

This week, temperatures soared in Western Canada, likely damaging some rapeseed during its key flowering period and shaving yield potential.

 

"I think there are some areas that are starting to be a little bit under stress unless showers provide a little bit of relief," Boersch said.

 

Rapeseed, however, has proved itself a resilient crop even in adverse weather, said Chuck Penner, analyst at LeftField Commodity Research.

 

"The genetics keep improving. It used to be rapeseed was one of the most vulnerable crops," he said. "Now it's one of the most stable."

 

Production of most major Canadian crops stands to increase after farmers got a reprieve from severe spring flooding that left large patches of the Prairies under water in each of the last two years.

 

The wheat crop got a good start in spring, germinating nicely in warm spring temperatures.

 

"That's really what distinguishes us from the States," Boersch said. "We both came into the spring with a big moisture deficit from last fall and summer.

 

"(The key) was being able to seed in a timely manner without too many problems and then having additional rain on it. The establishment of the crop was almost picture-perfect."

 

The oat harvest is expected be flat at three million tonnes, while barley production may jump 16% to nine million tonnes, the biggest output in three years.