July 16, 2009
Argentina wheat still dry; exchange forecast trimmed
Rainfall in parts of Argentina's farm belt helped wheat planting progress, but conditions remain dry in many areas, preventing planting, the Buenos Aires Cereals exchange said in its weekly crop report Wednesday (Jul 15).
Showers fell in the north of Buenos Aires and Entre Rios provinces, but drought continues in Cordoba, Santa Fe, La Pampa and the south of Buenos Aires province. "In each of these regions, planting is paralysed and in many areas the planting window has closed or is very close to," the exchange said.
The exchange slightly trimmed its forecast for 2009-10 wheat area to 2.75 million hectares, down 1.8 percent from last week's forecast.
Area is expected to be down 40.2 percent on the year, and represents the smallest area going to wheat in over 100 years.
To date, 1.96 million hectares have been seeded with wheat, the exchange said.
Over 99 percent of the area seeded with commercial corn has been harvested, with the last fields expected to be harvested in the next few days, the exchange said.
The exchange forecasts corn production of just 12.5 million tonnes, the smallest crop in over a decade. The crop suffered extensive drought damage.
The soy harvest is complete with production forecast by the exchange at a dismal 32 million tonnes. Early in the season, analysts had expected output to approach 50 million tonnes, but severe drought damage caused yields to plunge. Yields were the lowest in over a decade, according to the exchange.
Meanwhile, soy production is expected to rise sharply again next season.
Soy planting is likely to surge to between 19 million and 20 million hectares during the 2009-10 season, according to the exchange's top climatologist Eduardo Sierra. That would shatter the record set during the 2008-09 season, when farmers seeded 16.6 million hectares with the oilseed.
In addition to weather factors, the fact that soy is the only major crop in which the government doesn't control exports is spurring farmers to plant more of the oilseed. Argentina limits the export of wheat and corn to ensure domestic supply and keep down local prices.
