EU 2009-10 soft wheat output forecast raised slightly

Strategie Grains has marginally increased its EU 2009-10 soft wheat production forecast to 126.5 million tonnes due to higher production in central and east Europe, which has more than offset reductions in west Europe, the firm said Thursday.

 

Strategie Grains had forecast in June that EU soft wheat production would reach 126.3 million tonnes in 2009-10.

 

Central and eastern Europe are expected to produce 1.8 million tonnes more wheat due to the amount of rain in June, while western Europe is expected to produce 1.2 million tonnes less grain as a result of grain scald in France and the Benelux countries, and drought in Spain.

 

The 2009-10 crop represents a 10-percent fall from the bumper crop of 2008-09 when EU soft wheat production reached 140 million tonnes.

 

"In terms of quality, indications from the first cuts are relatively positive," the firm said. "However, the current rainy conditions, especially in central and east Europe could lead to a sharp deterioration in grain quality; in effect the proportion of feed wheat is already expected to be much higher than last year in the countries concerned," the firm said.

 

EU barley is also estimated to be only 200,000 tonnes higher at 59.4 million tonnes, compared with the June estimate and down nine percent on the year.

 

The winter barley harvest was well advanced in south Europe and just beginning in central Europe. The first analysis indicates satisfactory grain quality in France but more varied quality in Spain and Italy.

 

EU corn production is estimated to be 900,000 tonnes lower at 56.6 million tonnes, compared with the June estimate and down 9% on the year.

 

Strategie Grains said the corn crop in France and Germany is developing "satisfactorily" but there are concerns about the Italian crop due to a heat wave in May and disease. There are also problems in southern Europe where June rainfall arrived too late to prevent a decline in yield potential.

 

The combination of these revisions has lead EU grain prodution being pegged at 283 million tons, compared with a previous estimate of 283.3 million tons, down 9% on last year but 6.5 million tons higher than the average of the last three crop years, the firm said.