July 16, 2008

Poland's grains production seen down on drought

Poland's grains production in 2008 is expected to total about 25 million tonnes, down from initial forecasts of 27.5 million tonnes, because of drought, analysts said on Tuesday (July 15, 2008).

Close to 60 percent of Poland's arable land have experienced drought conditions in the past three months, according to a recent report by the Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation.

"Drought has mainly affected (the yield of) summer grains," said Wieslaw Lopaciuk of Warsaw's Institute of Agricultural and Food Economics.

"Winter grains have also been affected but not to such an extent," he added.

Lopaciuk said he saw total 2008 grain output at 25 million tonnes, with an average yield of 2.97 tonnes per hectare, down from 3.25 tonnes in 2007.

The drought's impact has been limited by an early start to the crop growing season after a mild winter, said Izabela Dabrowska, an agricultural markets analyst at BGZ Bank.

Although drought lowers the yield and quality of the seed, it gives the seed higher protein content, she said.

Dabrowska agreed with the Polish Grain Chamber's latest forecast, which envisages a total crop of 25.7 million tonnes.

In June, the Polish Grain Chamber cut its initial estimate following the reports of drought.

However, other countries in eastern Europe expect better harvests this year. Farming officials say harvests could jump in most of the region by anywhere from 10 to 70 percent.