July 15, 2010

Exports for US corn are reduced to 49.5 million bushels for the October-September 2010/11 local marketing year, further down 50 million to 1.95 billion for September-August.

Corn prices are expected to increase due to tighter supplies and strong domestic demand, limiting its competitiveness. World corn trade for 2010/11 is projected down 0.5 million tonnes to 89.7 million, as increased corn prices trim Mexico's imports 0.5 million tonnes to 9.1 million. Ukraine and Brazil are expected to benefit from reduced US competition, and corn exports are raised 0.5 million tonnes each.

Production prospects for Russia and Canada's exports are also slashed by 0.8 million to one million tonnes and 0.4 million to one million tonnes, respectively. There is also a small reduction in Kazakhstan's exports. With large stocks, EU barley exports are increased 1.4 million tonnes despite reduced production. Reduced competition is also boosting export prospects for Australia.

This month, US corn exports for 2009/10 are unchanged at 49.0 million tonnes. Census exports for October 2009 through May 2010 reached 31.5 million tonnes, and June grain export inspections of corn reached 4.1 million tonnes. Outstanding export sales for shipments in 2009/10 reached 9.9 million tonnes as of July 1, 2010.

However, the pace of recent shipments indicates that larger-than-usual shares of the July 1 outstanding sales are likely to get carried into the next marketing year.

World corn trade in 2009/10 has increased slightly this month to 85.9 million tonnes mostly due to a small increase in corn exports for Ukraine. Corn imports for South Korea are increased 0.4 million tonnes to 8.2 million.