July 15, 2009

World coarse grain production for 2009-10 is projected up 8.9 million tonnes this month due to increased US corn production, while foreign changes are most likely to boost world output by only 300,000 tonnes.

 

EU coarse grain production is projected up 900,000 tonnes to 149 million tonnes. Mixed grain production in the EU is up 1.2 million tonnes to 14.2 million tonnes mostly due to increased area and favourable growing conditions in Poland.

 

EU barley is down 300,000 tonnes to 60.7 million tonnes, as increases for Denmark, France and Finland are more than offset by declines in prospects for Germany, Hungary, Romania, Austria, Slovakia and Spain.

 

EU corn is projected down slightly with mostly offsetting changes. A 1.2-million-tonne increase for France due to increased planted area is more than offset by poor crop conditions in Italy, Romania, and others.

 

Ukrainian and Russian barley production is expected to increase 200,000 tonnes and 500,000 tonnes, respectively, on higher acreage. However, Russian corn production is expected to drop 500,000 tonnes on lower acreage. Kazakhstan's barley area was reported lower than expected, reducing production prospects slightly.

 

A cold dry spring in Canada, especially in Alberta, has reduced 2009-10 barley production prospects by 650,000 tonnes to 23.7 million tonnes.

 

Philippine corn area was reported slightly lower for both 2008/09 and 2009/10, slightly reducing production in both years.

 

Global coarse grains supplies for 2009-10 are boosted this month by increased beginning stocks, but the increase is mainly in US corn, with foreign coarse grains beginning stocks virtually unchanged at 137.2 million tonnes.

 

However, foreign corn beginning stocks are up one million tonnes this month, while barley is down 500,000 tonnes.

 

Brazil's corn beginning stocks are up 500,000 tonnes as reduced export prospects for 2008-09 more than offset a decline in production.

 

China's coarse grain beginning stocks for 2009-10 are up 500,000 tonnes mostly because of an increase in estimated 2008-09 corn production.

 

Barley beginning stocks for 2009-10 in Russia are down 600,000 tonnes to 3.7 million tonnes due to recent strong exports.