July 15, 2009

US pork exports were expected to be most affected by the AH1N1 flu outbreak in May, but the impact has not been as negative as some analysts had predicted, according to the USDA's analysis.

May pork plus pork variety meat exports totalled 143,682 tonnes valued at US$342.6 million, down 9 percent in value and 9.5 percent in volume from April, and down a substantial 24 percent in value and 27 percent in volume compared to May 2008.

But spring of 2008 was a historic high point for US pork exports, and a repeat of those results was not anticipated even before AH1N1 flu hampered demand and led to significant market closures for US pork.

When compared to May 2007, pork exports in May 2009 increased 43 percent in volume and 36 percent in value, and surpassed the volume and value achieved in any single month of that year.

For the first five months of 2009, exports are down 4 percent in volume to 791,745 tonnes and 1 percent in value to US$1.8 billion from the same period last year.

It is noted that that despite speculation about the domestic market absorbing excess pork due to sluggish exports, the percentage of total production exported (23.3 percent) is roughly on pace with 2008.

Despite being regarded as the epicenter of the AH1N1 outbreak and enduring a weeklong shutdown of most commercial activity in early May, Mexico performed fairly well for the month.

While pork and pork variety meat exports to Mexico declined by about 15 percent from April, volume was still 18-percent higher than in May 2008, totalling 34,227 tonnes.

For the first five months of the year, Mexico has increased its imports of US pork by 48 percent in value and nearly 60 percent in volume over the same period last year.

It has been the leading volume destination for US pork at 211,391 tonnes and trails only Japan in terms of value at US$315 million as compared to US$695 million to Japan.

Japan continues to perform exceptionally well for US pork, with results through the first five months of the year surpassing last year's record pace by 4 percent in volume at 192,050 tonnes and 17 percent in value.