July 14, 2010
USDA expects global wheat production to decline by 7.5 million tonnes
The USDA has released its forecast that world wheat production for 2010/11 will decline this month by 7.5 million tonnes following an 11.5 million tonnes projected drop in foreign production that more than offset a four million tonnes increase in US wheat production.
Foreign wheat production projected for 2010/11 is reduced this month to 600.8 million tonnes, leaving foreign wheat production 18.8 million tonnes lower than estimated for the previous year. Foreign wheat area is projected 2.8 million hectares below last year at down to 202.6 million, following a 1.9-million-hectare reduction taken this month, while average yield is down 2.0% year to year, and 1.0% this month.
Reductions in production are taken for Russia, Canada, Kazakhstan, EU-27, India, and Turkey. Those reductions are partly offset by higher projected output in the US and China. The main wheat area reductions are made for Canada and Russia reflecting adverse weather conditions during planting season.
The biggest drop in wheat production prospects for 2010/11 this month occurred in Russia, where the month-to-month decrease reached 4.5 million tonnes, lowering output to 53 million. In Kazakhstan, wheat production is estimated 3.0 million tonnes lower this month, with wheat output down to 14.0 million, which takes total FSU-12 wheat production down 7.5 million tonnes.
Dryness started to develop back in April, with prolonged low precipitation and high temperatures across the entire spring wheat belt in the FSU-12 that runs from central western Russia east across the Ural Mountains and into Siberia, including northern and central Kazakhstan. The drought intensified in June when precipitation often did not reach even 10 millimetres (0.4 inches), less than 20% of normal.
The Central, Volga, and Ural districts are currently experiencing the driest conditions on record for an April-July stretch.
In western and central Kazakhstan, the dryness is the second-worst on record after a disastrous 1991, when production was less than seven million tonnes with a 0.5 tonnes per hectare yield. Extreme dryness has been accompanied by high temperatures over 30 degrees C, and sometimes over 35, which stressed, and in some cases, damaged the crop.
At the same time, winter wheat in Russia`s most important wheat-growing regions- Southern European Russia and the north Caucasus is doing substantially better than last year.
Higher yields of winter wheat are expected, and despite high winterkill that happened mainly in the Central and Volga districts (16% versus 4% last year, that leads to this month's area reduction of 0.6 million hectares), winter wheat production is projected to partly counterbalance anticipated losses in spring wheat.
Indian wheat production outlook is reduced 1.0 million tonnes to 79.0 million this month, 1.7 million tonnes lower than last year. Wheat yield was affected by an intense heat wave over northern, north-western, and central India in March and April while the crop was already in maturity stage, and the shortened ripening time resulted in smaller grain size.
