July 14, 2004

World 2004/05 Soybean Exports Seen At 66.3 Million MT

World 2004/05 soybean exports are forecast to reach 66.3 million metric tons, up nearly 14% from the previous year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Tuesday in its "Oilseed: World Markets and Trade" report.

The increase in world exports is attributed largely to a rebound in U.S. exports, along with continued strong exports by the other major producing countries in South America. U.S. soybean exports to the world for 2004/05 are forecast at 28.6 million tons, up 17% from the previous year, boosted primarily by record-high production. Soybean exports from South America, namely Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Argentina should strengthen as production expands in the region. Brazil's soybean exports for 2004/05 are forecast at 23.4 million tons, up 13% from the previous year.

China's dominance in world soybean imports is expected to continue as it demands nearly 37% of world soybean imports or 24 million tons in 2004/05 despite a substantial increase in production, the report said. For 2003/04, China's soybean imports are projected at 18 million tons, down one million tons from last month's forecast. The downward revision is attributed to China's phytosanitary concerns with a fungicide in Brazilian beans. In addition, high prices for imported soybeans reduced Chinese crush margins, causing crushers to default on contracts.

Source: USDA