July 13, 2012

The July Crop Production report of the USDA indicated Thursday (July 11) that US winter wheat production in 2012 was forecast at 1,670,346,000 bushels, down 13.321 million bushels, or 1%, from 1,683,667,000 bushels forecast in June but up 176.669 million bushels, or 12%, from 1,493,677,000 bushels in 2011.

In its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, the USDA slashed its projected 2012 corn yield by 20 bushels an acre from its June forecast "reflecting the rapid decline in crop conditions since early June and the latest weather data."

The USDA forecast 2012 production of spring wheat other than durum at 471,769,000 bushels, up 4% from 455,188,000 bushels in 2011. Durum output was forecast at 81,960,000 bushels, up 62% from 50,482,000 bushels last year. It was the first survey based forecast of spring wheat and durum production for the season.

All wheat production in 2012 was forecast at 2,224,075,000 bushels, up 224,728,000 bushels, or 11%, from 1,999,347,000 bushels in 2011. The projected carryover of US wheat on June 1, 2013, was forecast at 664 million bushels, down 30 million bushels, or 4%, from its June forecast and down 79 million bushels, or 11%, from a revised 743 million bushels in 2012.

In its WASDE, the USDA projected the carryover of corn in the US on September 1, 2013, at 1.183 million bushels, down 698 million bushels, or 37%, from 1.881 million bushels projected in June, but up 280 million bushels, or 31%, from 903 million bushels forecast for the current year.

Although not survey based, the USDA projected 2012 corn production at 12,970 million bushels, down 1,820 million bushels, or 12%, from 14,790 million bushels projected in June. The production forecast was based on projected harvested area of 88.9 million acres, down 200,000 acres from the June projection, and average yield of 146 bushels an acre, down 20 bushels from 166 bushels an acre in June.

The USDA projected soy carryover on September 1, 2013, at 130 million bushels, down 10 million bushels, or 7%, from 140 million bushels projected in June and down 40 million bushels, or 24%, from 170 million bushels forecast for the current year.

The USDA projected 2013 carryover numbers for wheat, corn and soy were below the average of trade expectations. The 2012 winter wheat estimate was near the trade forecast while the all wheat number also was below trade expectations.

Wheat, corn and soy futures traded sharply higher after the release of the report.