July 13, 2009

The US Department of Agriculture on Friday (July 10) raised its forecast for US wheat ending stocks for the 2009-10 marketing year by 59 million bushels despite higher expectations for exports and domestic use.

 

The new ending stocks forecast, released with the USDA's monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, is 706 million bushels, up from the June forecast of 647 million bushels.

 

"The ending stocks projection is raised 59 million bushels as the higher production forecast more than offsets expected increase in use," the USDA said.

 

US farmers are now predicted to produce 2.112 billion bushels of wheat for the 2009-10 marketing year, up from the 2.016 billion-bushel forecast released by the USDA a month ago. Wheat exports are seen higher at 925 million bushels, up from the June forecast of 900 million.

 

Total domestic wheat usage, the USDA said, is now expected to total 1.263 billion bushels. That's up slightly from the USDA's June prediction of 1.253 billion bushels.

 

The USDA also raised its forecast for world wheat production in the 2009-10 marketing year - mostly due to increased production in the US and Russia and most former Soviet Union states. But world wheat supplies "are projected lower" for 2009-10 after the USDA lowered its estimate of carry-in stocks.

 

"The decline in world beginning stocks mostly reflects higher 2008-09 exports for [the European Union], Canada and Russia," the USDA said. "World exports for 2008-09 are raised 4.1 million tonnes to 136.4 million, 18.8 million higher than the previous record in 2007-08."

 

World wheat beginning stocks for the 2009-10 marketing year are now forecast at 167.35 million tonnes, down from the USDA's June prediction of 168.4 million tonnes.

 

World wheat production, though, is now seen reaching 656.48 million tonnes, up from last month's forecast of 656.06 million tonnes.

 

Wheat production in Argentina, though, is forecast lower. The USDA said: "Production for Argentina is lowered 1.5 million tonnes, reflecting continued dryness in central areas and reduced prospects for seeded area. Recent rains in the southeastern growing areas are expected to boost plantings there, partly offsetting area losses farther north."