July 13, 2009

As commercial beef prices continue to move upward, an increase in potential breeding heifers being finished could lead to a shortage in replacements next year, according to veterinarian Maarten Boers from West Sussex's The Livestock Partnership.

Farmers who are now cashing in are taking a short-term view, resulting in potential longer term problems on farm, he said.

Selling heifers will return a quick cash fix in the short term, but in long term a lack of replacements may cost some farmers more as they could potentially be forced to hold on and breed next year from poorer quality stock.

The poorer quality cows could include those with mastitis and poor udders and also those in poor conditions, said Boers.

Breeding from cows with poor udders can have severe long term effects, as it will affect calf growth rates and so more expenses for bought-in feeds would be needed to increase calves growth rates, he said.

Keeping poor cows will also lead to more labour and further expenses on animal health costs, he said.

The situation can still be reversed but action is needed now, as the most fertile heifers will conceive within one to two cycles, Boers said.

While many agree the warnings signs are there that there may be a shortage of heifers next year, SAC beef specialist Gavin Hill believes herds are actually becoming more efficient and productive.

Cull cows have now become a product with prices increasing, and many farmers are selling poorer unproductive stock instead of holding them back, said Hill.

This may result in cow numbers dropping significantly in some herds, and some may have dropped 20-30 percent, but farmers need to drop their fixed costs at the same rate if they want to be efficient and profitable, Hill said.