July 13, 2006

USDA sees lower 2006/07 soybean ending stocks

The US Department of Agriculture on Wednesday (Jul 12) lowered its forecast for 2006/07 soybean ending stocks because of lower planting expectations this year and stronger-than-expected residual use for the old crop.

The USDA said it is now expecting the 2006/07 soybean carryout to total 560 million bushels, a drop from the 655 million it was predicting a month ago. The USDA's 2006/07 production forecast slipped to 3.01 billion bushels, down from the June forecast of 3.08 billion.

The forecast adjustments will come as no surprise to market analysts who generally expected the changes in USDA's July supply and demand report.

In June, the USDA lowered is estimate for US soybean acreage to 74.9 million acres, down from its previous March forecast of a record-breaking 76.9 million acres.

The July supply and demand report showed a stronger USDA estimate for the old-crop 2005-06 soybean crush of 1.27 billion bushels, up 5 million from a month ago.