July 13, 2004

 

 

US Corn, Soy, Spring Wheat Crops Improve

 

U.S corn and soybean crops continue to show solid progress in the U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop-progress report, released Monday.

 

This is especially important for corn since it is now at its critical stage for the year, said Joel Karlin, commodity manager at Integrated Grain and Milling. Soybeans are still another month away from their critical point, said Don Roose, president U.S Commodities in Des Moines, Iowa.

 

The U.S. winter wheat harvest is nearing completion, with 69% gathered. Spring wheat, which is in the middle of the heading stage, was the only significant mover of the four crops with the good-to-excellent rating improving by five percentage points over the previous week.

 

CORN

 

U.S. corn conditions, with a 74% good-to-excellent rating, improved by one percentage point for the second week in a row. The poor-to-very poor rating stayed constant at 7%.

 

"This is as expected, the crop is doing generally well," Karlin said.

 

Roose agreed, saying that this is especially important because corn is in the pollinating stage, the most important stage when it comes to the year's yield. He said 144 bushels per acre are expected, which is above the 142.2 bushels from the last yield. The USDA is expecting 145 bushels, he said.

 

The U.S. crop is 32% silked, which is 11 percentage points higher than five-year average for this time of the year. Roose said most of the states in the central Midwest and the south have already begun pollination, while those in the upper Midwest will be a bit later.

 

Karlin said at this point last year the corn crop began to have a bit of a downfall in its overall rating. Roose agreed, saying the present rating is "generally the high-water mark for the year."

 

Karlin did express hope in the upcoming weather for corn, saying the forecasts looked very good and in fact some states west of the Mississippi River may actually be looking for a little heat.

 

However, a Global Weather Services report said the heat in the Midwest won't last long as a cold front will drop the temperatures into the low 80s late in the week.

 

SOYBEANS

 

The soybean crop also improved by one percentage point to a 68% good-to- excellent rating. The poor-to-very poor condition stayed constant for the third consecutive week at 8%.

 

It's premature to put much stock in the present crop-progress report for soybeans, Roose said. Unlike corn, whose critical time of the season is now, soybeans' critical time comes in August, Roose said.

 

"We found out last year that a lot can happen in the month of August," he said.

 

Last year at this time, the crop was in the same condition and expectations were for a yield of about 39.5 bushels per acre. However, last year the weather turned hot and dry, and particularly the dry weather hurt the soybean yield. The USDA dropped the bushels-per-acre yield to 33.4.

 

U.S. soybeans are now 39% bloomed, up from the five-year average of 31%. Karlin said the crops throughout the Midwest - particularly in the northern states of Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan - will pick up maturity as the temperatures finally start reaching the 90s after a cool, wet start to summer.

 

In the South, both Roose and Karlin said the industry is trying to get on the market as soon as possible the soy crops in the south that have begun setting pods. Mississippi and Louisiana have already begun setting with 76% and 45% of the crop having set pods, respectively, compared to 6% for the entire U.S. crop.

 

"With the government predicting 105 million bushels (of old-crop ending stocks), which is not a lot, there's lots of hope for soybeans in the Delta and Southeast," Karlin said.

 

WINTER WHEAT

 

The only report the USDA gave on winter wheat was on the progression in crop harvest, which is now at 69%. This is two percentage points lower than the five-year average. The key state of Kansas has 95% of its crop harvested. USDA no longer reports condition of the crop.

 

Roose said the crop is realistically more around 80% harvested. He said the 20-30-million-lower expected winter wheat crop production from last week is still accurate.

 

When the leading state, Kansas, has as disappointing a wheat crop as it did, one can expect the U.S. crop to take a hit. Karlin said millers in the northern states would probably like more heat in order to add protein to the less-than-stellar winter wheat crop.

 

SPRING WHEAT

 

U.S. spring wheat was the only one of the crops to make significant gains in the past week. It increased in the good-to-excellent rating by five percentage points to 71%. The poor-to-very poor ratings decreased from 10% the previous week to 7% this past week.

 

The spring wheat progressed well this week after declining slightly the past week. The difference was that this week, unlike last week, the crop received good weather, Roose said.

 

Karlin agreed, saying the crop received much better weather and is starting to look very good.

 

The USDA reported that 72% of the crop is now headed, which is right on target with the five-year average.