July 12, 2012

China's 2012 winter wheat crop reaches record level

China's winter wheat harvest for 2012, which is 3% higher on-year, has reached record 114.3 million tonnes, the National Bureau of Statistics declared on Tuesday (July 10).

The bumper harvest brought the total summer grain output, including barley, to a record 129.95 million tonnes, an increase of 2.8%, the bureau said in a statement on its website.

The official data beat many analysts' estimates that China's winter wheat output may fall this year, as excessive rain during the flowering period and diseases reduced yields.

Many analysts had projected a decline in winter wheat output. Ma Wenfeng, an analyst with Beijing Orient Agri-business Consultant Co., said he believed the bureau's figures for winter wheat were too optimistic, and that output in southern Henan and Jiangsu and Anhui provinces had declined slightly.

Ma had projected in a report last month that 2012 winter wheat output would fall 1.6% to 109.5 million tonnes.

In addition, wheat crab, a disease that results in lower yields and poorer quality, may have downgraded 4-5 million tonnes of milling wheat to feed-grade wheat, he said.

Winter wheat, which is harvested in May and June, accounts for around 95% of China's total wheat output. China also plants spring wheat, which is harvested in September and October.

The government's huge stocks of wheat will likely limit imports even if actual output declines and large volumes are downgraded to feed grade, traders said.

China is believed to have more than 50 million tonnes of wheat in government stocks, which is equivalent to around half of the nation's annual consumption.

In the January-May period, China imported 1.97 million tonnes of wheat, compared with 271,040 tonnes during the same period a year earlier, Customs data showed. Of the total, 1.39 million tonnes were imported from Australia.