July 11, 2005
ASA Weekly: US soy planted area down slightly from 2004; Brazil's soybean crop to hit 50.2 million tonnes
US soy planted area down slightly from 2004
US soybean planted area for 2005 could reach 29.7 million hectares, down 3 percent from last year's record high acreage, according to the USDA.
Area for harvest, expected to be 29.3 million hectares, is down 2 percent from 2004. Area planted had decreased or remained unchanged from last year in most of the 31 major soybean-producing states.
However, planted area has increased in 8 states, such as Kansas and Missouri, with record-high soybean acreage in Nebraska, according to the USDA. North Dakota and Minnesota show the largest decrease in soybean acreage, each 202,000 hectares less than 2004.
Nationally, farmers reported that 91 percent of the intended soybean acreage had been planted at the time of the survey, compared with the average of 78 percent for the past 10 years, USDA said.
USDA also reported last week that soybeans stored in all positions on Jun 1 totalled 19.1 million tonnes, up 70 percent from Jun 1, 2004. On-farm stocks totalled 9.69 million tonnes, up 224 percent from a year ago. Off-farm stocks were 9.36 million tonnes, up 14 percent from the 2004 level. The Mar to May 2005 indicated that disappearance was at 18.6 million tonnes, up 38 percent from the same period a year earlier.
Brazil's soybean crop to hit 50.2 million tonnes
Brazil's Agriculture Ministry held its estimate for the 2004-05 soybean crop (October-September) at a record 50.2 million tonnes in its July forecast. The production estimate is marginally higher than last year's record of 49.8 million tonnes.
However, output could have been 10 million tonnes higher, had it not been for the sustained drought in the south of the country, said the ministry. The ministry reduced its total grain, oilseeds and cereals crop forecast to 112.4 million tonnes from the 113.7 million tonnes expected in May. The reduction is mainly due to losses to the corn crop.
Argentine GMO seed dispute with Monsanto escalates
Argentina intends to fight a lawsuit filed by Monsanto over an alleged infringement of property rights by Argentine farmers planting genetically modified soybeans.
Last week, Monsanto filed a patent infringement suit in Denmark against traders in Argentine soybeans produced from its genetically modified Roundup Ready (RR) seeds. By filing the suit in Denmark, Monsanto aimed to "clarify its intellectual property rights since some parties (in Argentina) have expressed doubts about those rights".
The move follows months of fruitless negotiations in which Monsanto had been pushing the Argentine government to put in place an effective royalty collection mechanism.
Any hopes that the threat of legal action would lead the Argentine federal government to take a more conciliatory approach were dashed last week. The Argentine government finally reacted angrily, calling the move "extortion" and saying that it would confront Monsanto in every court where it took its case.
Agriculture Secretary Miguel Campos said Monsanto has patent rights in Europe on its seed, "but not on grains and their by-products" that are sold by Argentine producers. Campos then ordered Argentine embassies to prepare to fight Monsanto in European courts.
"Because of Monsanto's bullying tactics, the only solution we will now accept is the withdrawal of the legal challenge," Campos said.
The government had in the past promised to create a special fund to compensate Monsanto, but the project has been stuck in the Congress for over a year due to stiff resistance from farm lobbies.
China expects smaller rapeseed crop
China is expected to produce about 11.2 million tonnes of rapeseed this year, a decrease of 15 percent from 2004, according to the China National Grains and Oils Information Centre (CNGOIC). Rapeseed production has been hit by the cold spring weather in central China, and this is reported to have reduced the oil yield.
However, ample supplies of other oils mean that neither rapeseed oil prices nor rapeseed imports are likely to increase from the shortfall.
Canada has increased its canola area this year and had initially hoped to fill some of the supply gap created by lower Chinese rapeseed production.
However, CNGOIC said this is unlikely because cooking oil retailers have turned to cheaper palm oil and soybean oil. Soybean imports rose 24.9 percent to 9.3 million tonnes in the first five months of this year, while palm oil imports rose 16.5 percent to 911,198 tonnes.
Studying the link between Asian rust and soybean plants
Iowa State University is starting a study of the molecular interaction between soybean plants and the Asian rust fungus. One of the US university's first studies looks at the molecular changes that occur in soybeans infected by the pathogen.
Researchers affiliated with the university's Plant Sciences Institute hope that the investigation can lead to the development of a soybean variety resistant to the deadly pathogen.
Iowa State plans to capture genetic material at the earliest stages of the infection because the molecular interactions between the soybean plant and the rust fungus at that time are expected to be critical in determining the fate of disease progression.
Researchers also believe that the plant defence mechanisms may be activated in the resistant variety during the early stage of infection, while the susceptible variety is expected to lack effective defensive actions against the fungus.
It will take up to two months to garner an adequate amount of data, Iowa State said.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | |||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
5,663 |
4,853 |
3,059 |
896 |
1,630 |
2,820 |
681 |
3,129 |
4,186 |
|
Production |
75,010 |
66,778 |
85,484 |
35,500 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
52,000 |
52,600 |
53,000 |
|
Imports |
127 |
151 |
136 |
400 |
540 |
350 |
1,124 |
350 |
213 |
|
Crush |
43,966 |
41,631 |
44,906 |
24,723 |
24,298 |
26,842 |
27,796 |
29,172 |
30,215 |
|
Exports |
28,441 |
23,946 |
29,937 |
8,910 |
6,500 |
8,700 |
19,987 |
19,571 |
20,888 |
|
Other |
3,540 |
3,146 |
4,171 |
1,533 |
1,552 |
1,652 |
2,893 |
3,150 |
3,200 |
|
Usage |
75,947 |
68,723 |
79,014 |
35,166 |
32,350 |
37,194 |
50,676 |
51,893 |
54,303 |
|
Carryout |
4,853 |
3,059 |
9,665 |
1,630 |
2,820 |
4,976 |
3,129 |
4,186 |
3,096 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
218 |
200 |
191 |
330 |
347 |
250 |
490 |
763 |
469 |
|
Production |
34,666 |
32,953 |
35,674 |
19,486 |
19,050 |
21,253 |
21,950 |
22,920 |
23,730 |
|
Domestic use |
29,380 |
29,257 |
30,345 |
250 |
260 |
270 |
8,750 |
8,784 |
9,400 |
|
Net Exports |
5,304 |
3,705 |
5,293 |
19,219 |
18,887 |
20,583 |
12,927 |
14,430 |
14,374 |
|
Usage |
34,684 |
32,962 |
35,638 |
19,469 |
19,147 |
20,853 |
21,677 |
23,214 |
23,774 |
|
Carryout |
200 |
191 |
227 |
347 |
250 |
650 |
763 |
469 |
425 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
1,070 |
676 |
488 |
105 |
99 |
74 |
150 |
150 |
93 |
|
Production |
8,363 |
7,748 |
8,509 |
4,554 |
4,435 |
4,947 |
5,031 |
5,258 |
5,448 |
|
Domestic use |
7,752 |
7,651 |
7,847 |
130 |
130 |
145 |
2,668 |
2,710 |
2,785 |
|
Net exports |
1,005 |
285 |
587 |
4,430 |
4,330 |
4,676 |
2,363 |
2,605 |
2,666 |
|
Usage |
8,757 |
7,936 |
8,434 |
4,560 |
4,460 |
4,821 |
5,031 |
5,315 |
5,451 |
|
Carryout |
676 |
488 |
563 |
99 |
74 |
200 |
150 |
93 |
90 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 30 June 2005 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Belgium |
Soybeans |
1.5 |
326.9 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.2 |
6.6 |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
5.3 |
132.6 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
8.6 |
243.9 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
24.7 |
11791.6 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
24.8 |
701.4 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
6.6 |
179.1 |
|
Panama |
Soymeal |
5.4 |
92.8 |
|
Cuba |
Soybeans |
0.1 |
77.9 |
|
Salvador |
Soymeal |
0.8 |
75.0 |
|
Denmark |
Soybeans |
18.7 |
858.8 |
|
Vietnam |
Soymeal |
0.5 |
3.7 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
26.1 |
2660.1 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
1 |
22.9 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
71.8 |
2956 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
04 |
147 |
|
Philippines |
Soybeans |
23.5 |
153.3 |
|
Oman |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
Syria |
Soybeans |
7.9 |
83.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
32.6 |
1453.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkey |
Soybeans |
8.0 |
564.6 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
7.2 |
753.4 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
6.6 |
179.1 |
|
Soybeans |
1,333.5 |
28,652.1 |
162.1 |
|
Ecuador |
Soymeal |
5.1 |
29.4 |
|
Soymeal |
616.4 |
4,867.4 |
85.0 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
1.5 |
176.5 |
|
Soyoil |
32.0 |
374.2 |
2.2 |
