July 10, 2012

 

World soy output anticipates rebound in 2012-13

 

 

The 2012-3 marketing year can expect to see world soy production recover by around 12% to 266 million tonnes, the International Grains Council said in its first forecast for the next season.

 

Production in the aggregate marketing year for major producing and importing countries may match the record set in 2010-11, IGC said in its monthly report for July, although that would depend on a marked recovery in South America, which will not be harvested until 2013.

 

Soy output suffered immensely in 2011-12 due to a drought in several parts of South America.

 

If the IGC's forecast is accurate, it will mean an increase in global production of 30 million tonnes in 2012-13. However, traders and analysts caution that the ongoing bout of dry weather in the US threatens that outlook.

 

Soy output in the US, world's largest exporter, is forecast to rise by 4 million tonnes to 87.3 million tonnes in 2012-13, IGC said.

 

South American output is forecast to rebound to 139.5 million tonnes, up 22% from 114.4 million tonnes in 2011-12, it said.

 

Output in Argentina is forecast to rise by around a third to 53 million tonnes in 2012-13.

 

Solid increases in output are likely in key exporting countries, boosted by larger plantings and a significant improvement in productivity.

 

The new crop soy/corn futures price ratio, a closely watched indicator of seeding intentions, has moved higher in 2012, averaging around 2.5 since end-March--a level that usually makes soy plantings more attractive relative to corn, IGC noted.

 

China's soy imports in 2012-13 may rise by 5% to an all-time high of 59 million tonnes, or 60% of the global trade, due to strong demand for animal feed and rising consumption of vegetable oils, IGC said.

 

After consecutive declines in the previous two years, global soy trade in the marketing year that starts in October is projected to recover sharply to a record 96.4 million tonnes from 90.5 million tonnes in 2011-12.

 

Soy imports by Japan that were hit by the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami are forecast to rise by 200,000 tonnes to 2.9 million tonnes in 2012-13.

 

Global soymeal trade in 2012-13 is forecast at a record of 57.8 million tonnes, a tad higher on year.

 

Exports by the EU, world's largest soymeal importer, are forecast slightly higher on-year at 22.7 million tonnes.