July 10, 2009
US soy supplies expected to remain low, recover next year
Analysts said the US soy supply is expected to remain near a three-decade low this year but rebound and roughly double by next year.
The analyst average pegged old-crop US soy ending stocks at 108 million bushels, down from 110 million in June and new-crop at 218 million, up from 210 million in June.
The shrinking supply of soy, due largely to a drought in South America and nearly insatiable demand by China, the world's largest soy importer, had boosted soy prices sharply by early summer.
Chicago Board of Trade soy futures prices jumped to a nine-month high of almost US$13 per bushel by mid-June due to the dwindling supply of soy but the market has since fallen 15 percent to below US$11 per bushel.
Wheat supplies remain abundant, with global production robust and demand for wheat somewhat static.
The average of analysts' estimates for 2009-10 US wheat ending stocks for next year (end of May 2010) at 698 million bushels, up 8 percent from USDA's June forecast for 647 million, 4-percent more than this year and a huge 128-percent leap from the 306 million bushel carryout last year (2007-08).
