July 9, 2013

China's 2013-14 wheat production estimates to decrease 2%

Due to yield losses from adverse weather, post's estimate for China's wheat production in marketing year 2013-14 is revised to 118 million tonnes, a 2% decrease from the previous year.

Marketing year (MY) 2013-14 wheat imports are forecast at four million tonnes, an increase of one million tonnes from MY 2012-13 as international prices are price competitive with local wheat in feed and flour mills.

In MY 2013-14, corn acreage is estimated to rise 2% from the previous year as farmers favour corn planting over soy, tubers or other minor grains. Corn production is forecast at 210 million tonnes, assuming a better than average yield.

MY 2013-14 corn imports are forecast at five million tonnes as domestic consumption continues to outpace production. Rice imports in MY 2013-14 are estimated at three million tonnes, due to its price competitiveness over domestic rice, which is supported by a government floor price.

During MY 2013-14, the government is likely to increase imports of such grains to replenish state reserves or meet demand by private sector companies.