July 9, 2013

Europe meat production expected to rise in 2014

Boosted by an improved economic situation in EU countries and lower grain prices, European meat production is expected to increase slightly in 2014.

According to the European Commission's latest 'short-term outlook for arable crop, meat and dairy markets', rising autumn sowings for cereals and oilseeds, combined with favourable weather, should result in improved supplies in 2013-14. European cereal end-stocks are expected to recover to 40.1 million tonnes, up from 30.4 million tonnes in 2012-13, and world cereal markets are also forecast to recover.

Analysts predicted that improved cereal supplies would boost European meat production to around 43.5 million tonnes in 2014, reversing a two-year trend of falling production due to losses in the beef and pig sectors.

However, while beef and pork production are expected to recover in 2014, the report added, "Recent growth rates in poultry meat production are expected to slow down, while meat production from sheep would continue to contract after the unusual increase of this year."

Beef production is expected to stabilise this year and increase in 2014, due to 'recapitalisation of the cattle herd', the report stated. Although consumption will remain under pressure from high beef prices, analysts predicted that improved supplies and a better economic situation in most EU countries could result in a stabilisation of consumption at 10.8 kilogrammes per capita (in retail weight).

Pork supplies are expected to remain tight in 2013, falling a further 2%. However, analysts expect production to be boosted by lower cereal prices in 2014, which should also help stabilise consumption.

Poultry meat production, which has seen strong increases in recent years, is expected to slow to 12.5 million tonnes in 2013 as the result of high grain prices. Analysts said this slowdown is expected to continue into 2014, despite improved feed supplies and lower prices.

"Consumption would continue its steady development over the projected period though at a lower rate because of higher prices," the report added.

Sheep meat supplies will be boosted by a significant increase in UK and Ireland slaughterings in the first half of 2013, which are the result of a large carry-over of lambs from 2012 due to poor weather conditions. However, production is expected to fall in the second half of the year as a result of lower productivity and reduced flock numbers in key producing countries, resulting in a small 0.9% overall increase for the year.

However, the report added that this increase "shall be considered exceptional and of short length as in 2014 production is expected to resume declining". Consumption of sheep meat is forecast to increase in 2013 as a result of lower prices.