July 9, 2010
Kazakhstan, suffering significant crop damage due to drought like its Russian neighbour, has predicted its grain production to drop down to 30%.
Kazakhstan's deputy agriculture minister Arman Yevniyev said that the smallest member of the Black Sea agricultural triumvirate will harvest 14.5-15.5 million tonnes of grain this year.
The sharp fall from last year's 20.8 million-tonne crop reflects in part lower sowings of grains, which some farmers have turned away from in favour of oilseeds and also the dry weather, which is devastating Russian crops.
"There was drought in some regions and conditions were difficult there," Mr Yevniyev said. He added that "the general state of the crop is satisfactory" with at most 10% in poor condition.
Nevertheless, the decline forecast for Kazakhstan's harvest would be even more severe than that expected Russia, which analysts currently see as suffering at most a 17% slide in grains production. Indeed, Mr Yevniyev's data represents a huge departure from USDA's estimates, regarded as the global benchmark.
Last month, USDA statisticians pegged Kazakhstan's wheat harvest alone at 17 million tonnes; although, they will release updates forecasts for world crops on Friday (July 9). Traders believe that the USDA will cut its estimate of world production of the grain by 5-20 million tonnes, reflecting weather concerns already confirmed in Canada, Europe and Russia, which had already been suspected in Kazakhstan, too.
Despite the harvest shortfall, Mr Yevniyev said that the decline in grain exports would be, at worst, some 20%, supported by stocks of 6 million tonnes carried over from last year's record harvest.
Kazakhstan has been keen to raise its status as a grain exporter to diversify earnings from oil and enrich its rural economy, and has won some notable successes in tenders by Egypt.
"The country is to develop its export infrastructure in the Caspian Sea, to provide an alternative to rail transport to Russian and Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea," Mr Yevniyev added.
