July 9, 2010
Australia wheat crop forecast at 22.2 million tonnes for 2010-11
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) revised up its forecast for wheat production this crop year to 22.2 million tonnes, but warned that rains forecast in Western Australia, will be critical to achieving its estimate.
In March, the bank forecast production this crop year in a range of 20 million-21 million tonnes.
But with planting all but done, the bank revised its figures. The latest forecast reflects a 6% on-year reduction in area planted, and a 9% increase in yields, Luke Mathews, a commodity strategist at the bank said.
CBA's forecast is near others, with Rabobank Australia estimating 22 million tonnes and the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (Abare) projecting output at 22.1 million tonnes.
After annual domestic demand of about seven million tonnes is met, the remaining output is available for export, making Australia a major supplier to the global trade.
Short term weather forecasts point to widespread rain in Western Australia's wheat belt in the next few days, which may extend into the eastern states early next week.
