July 8, 2013

 

 

Brought about by the impact of hostilities on the country's agriculture sector, Syria's wheat imports may prove far higher in 2013-14 than markets expect, leaving output down by more than one-third on pre-conflict levels.

 

Syria, which began the century self-sufficient in wheat, will need imports of 1.5 million tonnes in 2013-14 due to the extent of devastation caused by the two years of civil war between rebels and the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the United Nations food agency, the Food and Agriculture Organization, said.

 

The figure is significantly higher than the 600,000 tonnes that the USDA believes Syria will import in 2013-14, with the International Grains Council putting the figure at 800,000 tonnes.

 

However, the Syrian wheat harvest has proven far smaller than the 4.2 million tonnes and 3.6 million tonnes, respectively, estimated by these organisations, besides the official Syrian figure of 3.16 million tonnes.

 

"Crop and livestock production, food availability and access to food have all taken an increasingly heavy toll over the last year as a result of the various ramifications of the on-going events within Syria," the FAO said, reporting on a mission to Syria.

 

"The threat of violence has caused large numbers, including farmers, to leave the country and even larger numbers to move from their homes to safer areas within the country. Many of the means of production, processing and storage of crops have been either damaged or destroyed, such as tractors, harvesters, pumps, irrigation canals, cotton ginneries, and grain silos."

 

The FAO estimated the wheat crop at 2.4 million tonnes, down 15% on-year, on its figures, and "significantly below the average of more than four million tonnes achieved prior to the crisis".

 

The impact on food security has been worsened by the impact of the conflict on food and grain logistics, with more than two-thirds of government wheat collection centres out of action, and most mills and bakeries closed. Indeed, "if the present conflict continues, the food security prospects for 2014 could be worse than they are now," the agency warned.

 

"With so many adverse factors now stacked against the crop and livestock sectors, and assuming that the present crisis remains unresolved, domestic production over the next 12 months will be severely compromised."

 

The estimate for wheat imports includes 378,000 tonnes to be delivered by the World Food Programme. About one million tonnes are estimated to be imported "commercially", leaving a shortfall of some 100,000 tonnes.

 

The pressure from Syria for imports is the latest in a series of supports to ideas of wheat market demand, with Egypt this week unveiling its first tender in five months, and China purchasing a reported 660,000 tonnes from Australia and the US. Jordan and Tunisia have also bought 100,000 tonnes each of wheat this week.