July 8, 2010

 

World grain production should double by 2050 to guarantee food security

Global crop production will have to double by 2050 from current levels to prevent world hunger and ensure food security, according to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

 

"We need to double food production to meet food requirements by 2050, when the global population is expected to reach 9.1 billion," Hiroyuki Konuma, FAO assistant director general and regional representative for Asia and the Pacific, told reporters at a briefing.

 

To achieve such a goal, agriculture investments in the Asia-Pacific region need to reach US$120 billion a year in the next 40 years if the region were to substantially increase food production over the next four decades, he said.

 

On a global scale, investments should reach US$200 billion a year.

 

However, investments in food production have been much slower than needed, averaging only US$80 billion a year in the past three years in the Asia-Pacific region, Konuma said.

 

Even overseas development assistance for agriculture has steadily declined over the years, accounting for only 5% of the total ODA in 2009 from around 19% in the 1980s, he noted.

 

According to Konuma, declining farm investments, along with a host of other challenges that include climate change, have steadily reduced food production growth in the region.

 

For instance, annual growth in production of rice, a main food staple in the region, has averaged only 0.8% over a 10-year period from 1997-2007 as opposed to cereal production growth of 2.7% during the green revolution in the 1960s, he said.

 

Annual growth in wheat, another major staple in the region, is much lower, averaging only 0.2% a year over the period, Konuma said.

 

As a medium-term goal for the region, cereal production will have to increase by 40% by 2030 from current levels, which could be achieved with an annual productivity growth of 1.8% in rice and wheat, he said.

 

With a sufficient amount of investment, the goal to double food production by 2050 is achievable, Konuma said, as highly-populated countries are implementing programmes to substantially increase their respective food production.

 

According to Konuma, Brazil is expected to increase its food production by 40% by 2019, while China, India and Russia aim to expand crop production by 20%. If realised, such increases would translate into a 1.8% increase in world food production.

 

To help boost investments in agriculture, the FAO has organised an investment forum on food security with the Asian Development Bank and International Fund for Agricultural Development.

 

"Policy-makers should recognise the importance of food security. They should come up with national investment plans and allocate enough resources in agriculture," Konuma said.

 

Food security in the Asia-Pacific is a major concern, as the region is already home to two-thirds of the world's one billion hungry.