July 8, 2010
 
China's corn imports may grow 10-fold by 2015
 
 
China, the world's second-largest corn consumer, may give up efforts to be self-sufficient in the commodity and boost imports 10-fold by 2015 to feed livestock, said a researcher at Japan's biggest grain trader.
 
Imports may expand to 10 million tonnes from about one million tonnes forecast for this marketing year as the Asian nation will turn to cheap corn supplies from overseas for feed production, said Akio Shibata, chief representative for trading company Marubeni Corp's research institute.
 
Imports of that volume would make China the second-largest importer after Japan, which buys more than 16 million tonnes a year, based on data from the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service. Increased buying may further bolster corn futures in Chicago, which have gained 11% in the past year, potentially raising costs for feed mills and meat producers.
 
Chinese corn demand is expanding as economic growth lifts living standards and wages, boosting consumption of meat, eggs and dairy products. Increased livestock production raises demand for feed, which can be made from corn and soy. Corn demand is forecast to grow 1.9% to 159 million tonnes in 2010-2011 from a year earlier, according to the USDA.
 
As of June 24, the outstanding sales of US corn to China were 890,100 tonnes for delivery by Aug 31, according to a USDA report.
 
"China's corn buying this year is signaling that the country is emerging as a net importer," Shibata said. "The nation is not considering maintaining its self-sufficiency rate for corn at a certain level as the grain is no longer an important food crop for Chinese people, whose staples are rice and wheat," he added. China hasn't been a net importer of corn in 14 years.
 
Corn production in China this year may grow 2.5% from 2009 to 168 million tonnes as farmers boost plantings, the state-backed China National Grain & Oils Information Centre said last month.
 

Still, China may miss that target if dry weather persists in the central and northeastern growing areas including the provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang, which accounted for almost 40% of the nation's corn output, according to the USDA.

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