July 8, 2009

South American soy stocks have been cut sharply by heavy recent sales and world supplies could be tight if the US soy crop is delayed this summer, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday (July 7).

 

Oil World estimates combined soy stocks in the four main South American exporters Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay fell to only 53.1 million tonnes on July 1, down 20 million tonnes on July 2008 because of larger than expected exports and crushings.

 

It said US soy stocks will be at a minimum level as of end-August 2009, which could result in delivery problems in the first 2 to 3 weeks of September, particularly if US harvesting is delayed.

 

Brazil's July 1 soy stocks fell to 27.0 million tonnes from 35.05 million tonnes on July 1, 2008, Oil World estimates.

 

This followed a sharp rise in Brazil's June soy exports to 6.17 million tonnes against 3.54 million tonnes in June 2008 as Brazil sold heavily to profit from the high old crop soybean prices, it said.

 

It estimates Argentina's July 1 soy stocks to fall to 24.2 million tonnes from 34.97 million tonnes in July 2008.

 

The sharp fall in Argentine stocks is likely to compel a fall in its soy exports to only 1.3 million tonnes in July 2009 to Feb 2010, down by 5.9 million tonnes on the same year-ago period, Oil World said.

 

Argentine farmers were also hopeful their government may cut its controversial soy export tax, it said.