Further reduction needed in US hog herd, analysts say

Market analysts say further reduction of the US hog herd is needed, as producers' efforts to cut back on sow numbers are being offset by an increase in productivity and litter sizes, according to the National Pork Board.

From March to May, the average number of pigs saved per litter reached a record high 9.61, compared to 9.38 last year, according to the latest USDA Hogs and Pigs Report.

On June 1, the US inventory of all hogs and pigs was 66.1 million head, down 2 percent from June 1, 2008, but up 1 percent from March 1.

The breeding inventory, at 5.97 million head, was down 3 percent from last year and down slightly from the previous quarter.

Totaling 60.1 million head, the market hog inventory was down 2 percent from last year but up 1 percent from last quarter. The March to May 2009 pig crop, at 28.5 million head, was down slightly from 2008 but up 2 percent from 2007.

US hog producers intend to have 2.97 million sows farrow during the June to August 2009 quarter, down 3 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2008 and down 5 percent from 2007.

On the one hand, the US pork industry has struggled with red ink for 18 of the last 20 months, largely due to high feed costs. However, the market may be bottoming now from the hit it took this spring from the H1N1 virus scare in April and May, says Bob Brown, an independent market analyst from Edmond, Oklahoma.