July 7, 2008

 

Exceptional droughts to become routine for Australia

Severe droughts would become a more common feature in Australia, with exceptionally hot years to occur every one or two years from the period 2010 to 2040, making such occurrences unexceptional, according to a government study issued Sunday ( July 6, 2008).

 

Australia faces a warmer and drier climate, with less warming near the coast and more warming inland, according to the study by the Bureau of Meteorology and the Commonwealth Scientific Industrial Research Organization.

 

The study, as part of a review of national drought policy, assessed the impact of climate change on the nature and frequency of exceptional climatic events.

 

Agriculture Minister Tony Burke said the Rudd Government has committed more than AUS$760 million (US$727.7 million ) in drought aid to farmers through its exceptional circumstances programme this fiscal year ending June 30, 2009.

 

The programme, which provides interest rate subsidies and income support, operates on the assumption that a drought occurs every 20 to 25 years and is now out of date.

 

As of June, 74 areas across Australia were drought-declared and receiving drought aid, with South Australia among the worst affected regions, he said.

 

Burke noted that rural communities are already struggling to stay afloat and droughts of this scale would be occurring more often. 

 

The Australian wheat industry has been hit with three droughts this decade, in 2002, 2006 and 2007, slashing production and sharply limiting the availability of exports, which has tightened world supply and helped prices climb to record levels.

 

The droughts have also caused exports of other agricultural produce such as livestock and dairy to swing from year to year.

 

Since 1950, most of eastern Australia has become drier and recent years have been unusually dry in the east and southwest. Both these key agricultural areas have seen a near absence of very wet years, the study found.

 

Projected decreases in annual average rainfall are likely to lead to fewer exceptionally wet years and more exceptionally dry years.

 

Australia, exports about 18 million tonnes of wheat worth US$4.6 billion per year. Droughts have impacted wheat production for the past year.

 

The country's wheat production in 2007, affected by drought, was 13 million tonnes whereas crops for the crop year ending March 2009 was expected to reach nearly 26 million tonnes as farmer interest on wheat planting rose on international high prices. However, this assumes normal weather conditions in the region.