July 6, 2006

Brazil's IBGE puts final 2005/06 soy crop below 53 million tonnes

The Brazilian Census Bureau (IBGE) said Wednesday (Jul 5) in their monthly 2005/06 national crop estimate that Brazilian growers would harvest about 52.8 million tonnes of soybean because of smaller yields in the centre-west soy belt.

Brazil's 2005/06 soy crop has been completely harvested and was expected to be closer to 58.5 million tonnes back in January, according to IBGE.

But dry weather in pockets of Parana and Bahia, coupled with low yields nationwide and Asian soybean rust throughout no. 1 producer state Mato Grosso led to constantly lower estimates throughout the year.

Some private estimates, mainly the agribusiness consulting group Agroconsult, had put the soy crop below 53 million tonnes as early as March because of poor yields and soybean rust. The group conducted a national crop tour of Brazil in early March, confirming that farm debts had caused soy growers to spend less on fertilisers and agrotoxins to fight plant diseases.

IBGE's latest numbers are the first government numbers putting the crop below 53 million tonnes.

The National Commodities Supply Corp (Conab) said last month that Brazil should harvest 53.8 million tonnes. Conab will release one of their last crop estimates for the 2005/06 soy season on Thursday.

Brazil is the world's no. 2 soy producer and exporter. Brazil harvested 51.1 million tonnes of soybeans in the 2004/05 crop.