July 6, 2004

U.S. Beef 2004 Export Forecasts Reduced To 451 Million Pounds

Prior to the BSE discovery in the United States, exports were forecast to reach a record in 2004.

Following the discovery of the BSE-infected cow in Washington, all major markets imposed bans on U.S. beef. Canada relaxed its ban in January 2004 to exclude only bone-in beef and beef from animals over 30 months of age. Mexico announced similar limitations in March as well.

In spite of these announcements, exports to Canada had only reached 6 percent of year-earlier levels in April and weekly export data suggest similarly slow movement through June. These weekly data also suggest that exports to Mexico had gradually increased to only 60 percent of pre-BSE levels by early June.

Exports to both countries appear unlikely to reach pre-BSE levels before the end of 2004. Exports may total only 451 million pounds in 2004, as the bans and restrictions in place as of July 2004 are assumed to remain until the importing countries announce policy changes.

Source:  ERS/USDA