July 5, 2007

Developing countries to account 80 percent of meat demand growth

Economic growth in developing countries will represent more than 80 percent of the estimated world meat consumption increase between 2007/16, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations said Wednesday (July 4) in their Agricultural Outlook report.

"The global outlook for meat is increasingly characterized by rising production and consumption trends of developing countries and a more stable and mature path of development for markets of OECD countries," the joint report said.

Beef and veal prices are seen growing to US$303.6/ per 100 kilograms (kg) dressed weight by 2006/07 and then at US$303.4/100 kg dw in 2007/08. Prices are estimated to drop to US$297.7/100 kg dw by 2016/17.

Pork prices are seen rising US$165.4/100 kg dw by 2009-10 and only dropping slightly to US$160.6/100 kg dw by 2016-17, the report said.

Poultry meat prices are seen rising up to US$183/100 Kg ready to cook by 2011/12 Per-capita consumption in high income countries is expected to increase only marginally over the outlook period while developing countries' rising incomes and ensuing diet diversification will account for most of the predicted meat consumption growth, the report said.

Most expansion will occur in Asia and the Pacific region dominated by pork growth, it said. However, the report said the US will remain the largest meat importer.

By 2016, the report estimates world meat production to grow by 1.7 percent a year due to production expansion in Brazil, China and India. With trade recovering from disease outbreaks in many important countries, the major meat exporters are seen as Brazil, the US, Canada, Argentina and Australia.

Import dependency in meat producing countries will also likely grow as countries reach their capacity to produce, the report said.