This is mainly due to last year's "Transition" programme (a government-sponsored herd buyout) are just now being felt in terms of market pigs.

 

The first sows of that final buyout were culled in late October but producers have most of a year to empty their barns.

 

Market pig numbers in Ontario is expected to drop from about 100,000 per week at present to 85,000 per week in a few months. The final impact of the last transition buyout will not be felt until next spring.

 

But pig numbers are still falling in Canada, government buyout or not. While the basic price versus cost economics is better, the strong Canadian dollar sharply diminishes the improvement seen by US producers. If Canada's July 1 breeding herd is down as much in percentage terms from 2009 as it was in April, the August report will show 1.294 million breeding animals. Our long-ago thought that Canada's herd could shrink to 1.2 million looks, unfortunately, more and more prescient.