July 2, 2007

 

China targets grain output increase to 100 million tonnes by 2030
 

 

China aims to increase its annual grain output by 100 million tonnes to 590 million tonnes by 2030 to satisfy the demand from a population that will grow by 200 million, said an expert who advises the government on the impact of climate change on the agricultural sector.

 

Despite negative factors including global warming, the scarcity of water resources and less availability of arable land, the aim can be realized with the help of improved agricultural practices and technology development, said Lin Erda, chief researcher of agricultural meteorology at The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

 

The country's grain output exceeded 490 million tonnes in 2006, and China is aiming for an annual grain output of 500 million tonnes by the end of 2010, the Ministry of Agriculture said earlier this year.

 

But that could be a tough target to meet given China faces the risk of a fall in grain output due to the climate change.

 

If China's average temperature rises one degree centigrade by 2030 as some experts have predicted, the country's grain output will reduce by 5 percent-10 percent if no corrective measures are taken, said Lin.

 

In the past 100 years, China's average temperature has risen by 0.5 degree centigrade. But "China will definitely take measures to reduce the impact of (climate change)," he said.

 

China can adjust the structure of its agricultural planting, such as growing different varieties of crops that can withstand higher temperatures, said Lin.

 

For example, higher temperatures in the past 20 years have boosted grain productivity in northeast China's major grain producing regions, he said.

 

The spring wheat that used to be planted in the area has been switched to winter wheat that has higher yields and better quality, and paddy growing became possible in this region due to the warmer weather, Lin said.

 

The country will also develop new varieties of crops that better adapt to climate change and will improve technology on irrigation and water conservation, he added.

 

China has targeted an increase in its water utilization rate to around 50 percent from the current 45 percent, by the end of the country's 11th "Five Year Plan" that ends in 2010.

 

In China, one cubic meter of irrigation water can only produce one kilogramme (kg) of grain while one millimetre rain per 0.067 hectare can produce 0.5 kg of grain, half of that in developed countries in both cases.

 

If the country can increase its grain output by 0.1 kg per cubic meter of irrigation water and by 0.1 kg for every millimetre of rain per 0.067 hectare in regions with less rain, its grain output can increase by at least 50 million tonnes, China's Vice Agriculture Minister Wei Chaoan said earlier this month.

 

China needs to stick to its stated goal of achieving a grain self-sufficiency rate of 95 percent, as China already imports around 10 percent of the global trade in grains and anything above that is not sustainable, said Lin.

 

The global grain trading volume is less than 300 million tonnes, while China has been importing about 30 million tonnes a year in recent years.

 

Based on a population of 1.3 billion and grain consumption of 0.4 ton per capita per year, China's grain deficit was 30 million tonnes last year.

 

"The grain supply-demand gap is unlikely to expand in the coming years as the (growth in grain output due to) technology improvement is higher than the population rise," said Lin.

 

China's grain demand will peak by around 2030 as its population is expected to decline thereafter, while the global grain supply will remain sufficient compared with demand until 2050, Lin said.

 

So there should be no worries about China grabbing global grains, and the main focus of China's grain policy is ensuring that output rises by 100 million tonnes by 2030, he added.

 

"I am optimistic that China can achieve (the target)," said Lin.