July 2, 2004

 

 

Abiove Raises Brazil Soybean Estimate To 50.6 Million MT

 

Brazilian soybean output from the now- completed 2004-05 harvest (October-September) totaled 50.6 million metric tons, according to the latest estimate from Brazil's Vegetable Oils Industry Association, or Abiove, published Thursday.

 

The association raised its estimate from 50.3 million tons in its April report on the same day that the Agriculture Ministry lowered its forecast to 49.7 million tons. Abiove now expects output to be 2.5% lower than the 51.88 million tons produced last year.

 

Abiove said the figure was adjusted to account for greater soybean arrivals but would not affect crushing levels. Instead, the soybean import projection was lowered to 500,000 tons from 800,000 tons.

 

According to the latest survey of Brazil's crushing industry in June, the soybean crush will total 29.8 million tons in the 2004-05 marketing year, up 7.2% from 27.8 million tons last year. Soymeal production is seen rising to 23.2 million tons, up 8.4% on the 21.4 million tons produced last year, while soyoil output is forecast to grow 5.6% to 5.65 million tons.

 

The world's No. 2 exporter of soybeans will send 20.2 million tons of soybeans abroad in the 2004-05 marketing year (February-January), compared with 19.99 million tons last year.

 

Exports of soymeal are pegged at 15.5 million tons for 2004-05, up 14.1% from 13.58 million tons shipped last year. Meanwhile, soyoil shipments are seen at 2.70 million tons, up from 2.40 million last year.

 

Brazil crushed 2.67 million metric tons of soybeans in May, the fourth month of the new season, down from the 2.78 million tons processed in the same month last year.

 

Crushing did rise slightly from 2.50 million tons in April, said a monthly Abiove report.

 

With new crop arrivals over, industry stocks slid to 12.558 million tons at the end of May from 13.290 million tons in April.

 

May industry soybean purchases totaled 3.635 million tons, compared with 8.754 million tons in April.

 

Soymeal stocks rose slightly to 1.298 million tons at the end of May from 1.213 million tons at the start of the month.

 

Soyoil stocks totaled 355,000 tons on May 31, up from 321,000 tons at the start of the month.

 

The Abiove figures were based on a survey of 88% to 90% of Brazil's soy processing sector, which also accounts for the majority of exports.

 

The association maintained its export revenue estimate for 2004 to $9.868 billion from $10.484 billion. Last year, exports totaled $8.125 billion.

 

Brazil is the world's second largest soybean producer and is the world's largest soy complex exporter.