July 2, 2004

2004 Global Beef Consumption Expected to Fall From 2003

Global beef consumption is expected to fall 2.0 percent from 2003, according to a report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

The FAO of the United Nations recently issued its Food Outlook report. The report provides updated 2003 estimates and 2004 forecasts of world meat production, exports and consumption.

During 2004, world beef production is forecast to increase slightly over 2003 to 61.9 million MT. Low cattle inventories in Oceania, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) concerns in North America and reduced sector support in the EU are constricting slaughter, leading to an anticipated 2.0 percent decline in beef production in developed countries.

World beef exports during 2004 are projected to total 5.6 million MT, which is 8.2 percent less than 2003 as the result of higher beef prices and import bans on U.S. and Canadian beef. During 2004, global per capita beef consumption is expected to fall 2.0 percent from 2003.

In 2004, world pork production is forecast to increase 1.6 percent over 2003, equaling 97.7 million MT. World pork production is being limited by low returns to hog producers because of higher feed prices.

In many countries, production costs are exceeding market prices as international corn and soybean meal prices have soared. World pork exports during 2004 are projected at 4.3 million MT, up 2.4 percent from 2003, with much of the increase coming from North America. During 2003, global per capital pork consumption is expected to increase slightly over 2003.

Source:  AMS/USDA ¨C International Meat Trade Review