July 1, 2009

The US Department of Agriculture's s June acreage and quarterly stocks reports are seen as bearish for Chicago Board of Trade corn and wheat futures and slightly bullish for soy, floor traders said Tuesday (July 1).

Corn is called to open down 10-20 cents. Soy is called to open up 5-10 cents, and wheat is called to open down 3-5 cents.

The USDA surprised the markets by raising its estimate for US corn plantings to 87.035 million acres from its March estimate of 84.986 million. The number was "blockbuster bearish" because traders had generally expected producers would switch many corn acres to soy, a CBOT floor analyst said.

The average of analysts' pre-report estimates for corn plantings was 84.158 million acres. The USDA's forecast Tuesday topped the pre-report survey's highest estimate of 86 million.

The acreage report is "a little friendly" for soy as farmers did not switch as many acres as expected, traders said. The USDA pegged soy plantings at 77.483 million acres, compared to the average of analysts' pre-report estimates of 78.305 million. Tuesday's estimate was up from the USDA's March projection of 76.024 million.

The report was "negative" for wheat because planted acres topped analysts' expectations, traders said. The USDA estimated all-wheat plantings at 59.775 million acres, compared to the average of analysts' pre-report estimates of 58.337 million. In March, the USDA pegged plantings at 58.638 million. The highest estimate in the pre-report survey was 58.8 million.

The USDA estimated producers planted more spring wheat acres than expected in March, which was surprising as traders thought cool, wet weather had caused at least some acres to go unplanted. Spring wheat acres were seen at 13.772 million, compared to the average of analysts' pre-report estimates of 13.102 million and the USDA's March estimate of 13.304 million.