July 1, 2005

USDA: Australia grain and feed quarterly update
 

Significant changes in the weather patterns and associated late, soaking rains have avoided near-disaster for Australian winter grain production in the eastern part of the country. 

Wheat production in 2005/06 is forecast at 21.5 MMT, down 1.5 MMT from Post's previous forecast. The decline reflects the earlier dryness and the late start to the winter season in eastern Australia. 

Western Australia, which typically grows nearly 40 percent of Australia's wheat, is having a great start to the season and is expected to produce a bumper winter grain crop.

Wheat exports for 2005/06 are expected to reach 15.9 MMT, down 0.9 MMT or 5 percent from the previous forecast and down fractionally from the projection of 16.0 MMT for marketing year 2004/05.

Bulk wheat exports during the first half of the current Oct-Sep marketing year (2004/05) were about two percent higher than the same period in marketing year 2003/04. 

The change in the weather pattern and the accompanying rainfall is improving the outlook for the upcoming summer cropping season, which commences late in the year. Continued rainfall will be needed, however, to completely end the drought that has plagued much of eastern Australia since 2002.

For the full USDA report, click here.