India '09 soy output could match last year's level

India's soy output in 2009 could match last year's 10 million tonnes if monsoon rains pick up next month, even though there has been an 80 percent on-year drop in the sowing area in June, an industry official said Monday (June 29).

"Traditionally, 80 percent to 90 percent of soy sowing in India takes place in July, and how much area has been covered by mid-July will be critical," Rajesh Agrawal, an executive committee member of the Soy Processors Association of India, told Dow Jones Newswires.

On Monday, a weather department official forecast that monsoon rains will advance into the key soy-growing central region in the next three to four days, after a two week lull in the annual showers after arriving in the country on May 23.

Latest federal government data showed that between June 1-June 25 the soy acreage stood at 163,000 hectares compared with 811,000 hectares last year in the same period, mainly because of the delayed monsoons.

Industry players said there is no need to panic despite the drop in soy planting area, as sowing can still pick up by mid-July.

Sandeep Agrawal, director of Gujarat Ambuja Exports, said there was a small chance that yields could even be slightly better than last year, if monsoon rains were plentiful in July.

"There is still time for soy acreage to recover," said Amit Sachdev, the India Representative of US Grains Council.