June 30, 2005

Brazil's soy, corn production may double in 10 years
 

Brazil could double its production of soy and off-season corn in 10 years, according to agribusiness consulting firm, Agroconsult. With this, the country would be the world's biggest soybean producer.

Growing world demand for meat will increase consumption of soymeal and corn, inducing increases in American, Argentine and Brazilian crops. It is estimated about another 60 million tonnes of soy would be required, raising the number to 99 million tonnes in 2015/16.

Agroconsult also foresees that by then, the off-season corn crop will have increased from the current 7.5 million tonnes to 16.5 million.

Brazil's competitors would not be able to meet the increasing demand for crops due to a lack of land for expansion.

During the Fourth Brazilian Agribusiness Congress, Agroconsult said that the outlook for the next decade is that growing world consumption of meat will be greatest in developing countries, with an average of about 2 percent a year.

In 10 years, another 7.1 million hectares of Brazilian land will be incorporated into soy cultivation. Grain productivity will also increase, rising from the current 45 sacks per hectare to 55. The forecast, however, did not consider eventual losses due to climatic factors.

Should it become the world's biggest soy producer, Brazil will take over part of the world market that is today in the hands of US, increasing its share of world sales from 23 percent to 33 percent.

However, to reach this, Brazil will need investments. Currently, Brazil needs to overcome logistic problems, increase agricultural security and lower costs.

Agroconsult also predicts that during this period, US will convert part of its land currently used for soy to corn, which is needed to make ethanol.