June 29, 2009

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Monday: Up 2-5 cents; positioning ahead of USDA reports

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are expected to start Monday's day session higher, following the overnight trend, with positioning ahead of Tuesday's acreage and stocks report featured.

 

CBOT soybean futures are seen opening 2 cents to 5 cents higher.

 

Traders are expected to use Monday's session as an opportunity to even up some positions heading into Tuesday's reports, with supportive signals from outside markets aiding the gains, said Vic Lespinasse, analyst with Grainsanalyst.com.

 

Otherwise, a quiet news front will keep traders eyeing outside markets and weather for leadership.

 

A technical analyst said the next upside price objective for November soybeans is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at US$10.57 a bushel. The next downside price objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of US$9.70 3/4 a bushel.

 

DTN Meteorlogix said dry conditions or a few light showers will linger across the northeastern Midwest Monday, with temperatures in the 72-89 Fahrenheit range.

 

Scattered showers will move into eastern areas, but mostly dry west on Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry conditions or a few showers are on tap for the southern Midwest Friday. Temperatures will be near to below normal, Meteorlogix said.

 

On tap for Monday, U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its weekly export inspections report at 11 a.m. EDT and its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. EDT.

 

The USDA is expected to show a moderate increase in soybean acreage from its March prospective plantings report with soybean stocks as of June 1 reflecting solid third-quarter usage in its reports scheduled for release Tuesday 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).

 

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires estimate soybean acreage at 78.305 million acres, up 2.281 million acres from the March projection of 76.024 million. The estimates from the 18 analysts surveyed ranged between 75.300 and 79.631 million acres. USDA is expected to report soybean stocks at 586 million bushels in its quarterly Grain Stocks report.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled slightly lower Monday as the market stayed cautious ahead USDA's report to be released Tuesday. The benchmark January 2010 soybean contract settled RMB16 a metric tonne lower at RMB3,637/tonne.

 

Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivative exchange ended lower Monday in range bound, cautious trade. The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR57 lower at MYR2,262 a metric tonne.