June 29, 2009

The US Department of Agriculture, in an acreage report Tuesday, is expected to trim its estimate for US spring wheat plantings by 200,000 acres from March following seeding delays due to cool, excessively wet weather.

 

The USDA is slated to release the acreage report and one on quarterly grain stocks at 8:30 a.m. EDT Tuesday.

 

The average of analysts' estimates for plantings of spring wheat other than durum was 13.102 million acres, down from the USDA's March prospective plantings estimate of 13.304 million, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 12 analysts. In 2008, producers seeded 14.135 million acres of spring wheat.

 

Cool, soggy weather in the northern US Plains delayed planting for weeks this year and likely prompted some farmers to forgo planting or switch acres to other crops from wheat, analysts said. Hard red spring wheat is prized for its high protein content and used to make bread.

 

"I just felt pretty strong we didn't get it all planted," said Sid Love, analyst for Kropf & Love Consulting. He pegged spring wheat plantings at 13.25 million acres.

 

The range of analysts' estimates on spring wheat seedings was 12.826 million acres to 13.404 million. Private analytical firm Informa Economics had the highest estimate, which was 100,000 acres above the USDA's March estimate, according to traders.

 

Still, the firm's estimate represented a cut from its March forecast of 13.55 million, traders said. Informa lowered its estimate for plantings in North Dakota, the country's top spring wheat-growing state, by 100,000 acres, they said.

 

A survey of producers by Farm Futures magazine yielded the lowest estimate of 12.826 million.

 

"Based on what we saw from the response in North Dakota, we think spring wheat plantings will be down pretty significantly," Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr said. "All along, we felt that people were going to plant less wheat and less corn than USDA thought in its March intentions [report] just because of the high cost of inputs. There were a lot of people who went into the spring very reluctant to plant crops that were going to need nitrogen."

 

Analysts expect the USDA will reduce its estimates for durum and all-wheat plantings, as well. The average of analysts' estimates for all-wheat plantings is 58.337 million acres, down from the USDA's March estimate of 58.638. The average of analysts' estimates for durum plantings is 2.403 million acres, down from the agency's March estimate of 2.445 million.

 

As for quarterly grain stocks, the average of analysts' estimates for stocks as of June 1 was 670 million bushels, according to a Dow Jones survey of 12 analysts. That compares to stocks of 1.037 billion as of March 1 and 306 million as of June 1, 2008.

 

The USDA earlier this month estimated 2008-09 US wheat carryout at 669 million. Analysts said they did not see a reason for USDA to make a major adjustment from that level.