June 27, 2006

 

Brazil soybean registrations at 80 percent for 2006/07 crop

 

 

Registrations of Brazilian soybean exports for marketing year 2006/07 are at 80 percent of the estimated 56.4 million-tonne harvest as of Jun 15, or roughly 20.2 million tonnes of soy registered for export compared to 18.6 million tonnes registered on May 31, the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association (Abiove) said Monday (Jun 26).

 

By comparison, Brazil had already promised 70 percent of its 53 million-tonne crop in marketing year 2005/06 and 94.9 percent of its 50 million-tonne crop in marketing year 2004/05.

 

Nevertheless, Brazil has more soybeans registered for export at this time than it has over the last five years, Abiove reported, due to international demand from Europe and China.

 

Abiove maintained its marketing year 2006/07 soybean exports to be a record-breaking 25.2 million tonnes, compared with 22.4 million tonnes in marketing year 2005/06 and 19 million tonnes in 2004/05.

 

Brazil's 2006/07 soy crush was put at 28.5 million tonnes again in the Jun-15 estimate, Brazil's lowest crush in three years.

 

 

Soy derivatives

 

Soymeal registrations for marketing year 2006/07 fell slightly to 6.84 million tonnes compared with 6.85 million in the May-31 report. Roughly 53 percent of Brazil's soymeal has been registered for the export markets as of Jun 15, compared with 57 percent last year and 62 percent two years ago, or marketing year 2004/05.

 

Brazil's soymeal export registrations, in terms of volume, are the lowest they have been since marketing year 2002/03 when 6.7 million tonnes were promised to international markets at this time.

 

It is likely that a reduction in poultry feed spending in Europe and other markets where bird flu has been reported led to the decline. Abiove does not supply analysis with their data points.

 

Abiove maintains Brazil's soymeal export volume at 12.9 million tonnes in marketing year 2006/07, down from 13.8 million tonnes last year and 14 million tonnes two years ago. Brazil has been losing market share in the soy meal markets because of a tax law that favours the export of raw material, competition from Argentina, and a growing soy crush in China, according to industry consensus.

 

Soyoil export registrations to Jun 15 rose to 1.2 million tonnes compared with 1.1 million tonnes in the May-31 report. Registrations are the lowest they have been for this time of year since 2002/03, when 1 million tonnes of soyoil were registered for shipments.

 

Soyoil export registrations were put at 53.8 percent, compared with 54.8 percent in marketing year 2005/06 and 57.6 percent in marketing year 2004/05.

 

Abiove maintains its total 2006/07 soyoil export forecast at 2.25 million tonnes, the lowest soyoil export volume since 2002/03 when 2 million tonnes were shipped abroad.

 

Brazil is the world's second biggest soybean producer after the US.