June 27, 2005

 

China Fishmeal Market Weekly: Prices fluctuate; seen to continue moving in narrow range in near term (week ended Jun 26, 2005)

 

An eFeedLink exclusive report
 

 

1.  Price overview
 

Fishmeal prices in China continued to move in a narrow range in the week ending Jun 26.

 

 

2.  Market supply and demand
 

Supply: Aside from several container shipments of fishmeal, two bulk fishmeal vessels "destino dos" and "Bao Fu Men" carrying 12,000 tonnes and 12,800 tonnes arrived at Tianjin and Shanghai ports respectively. At the close of the week, fishmeal inventories at major Chinese ports totalled 151,000 tonnes (excluding unloaded fishmeal), up by 18 percent from the previous week.

Demand: According to official statistics, the departure volume for fishmeal from major Chinese ports for the period June 17-24 totalled 16,600 tonnes, down by eight percent compared with the previous week.

 

 

3.  Overseas markets
 

Outside China, Peruvian fishmeal prices edged higher. At the close of the week, FAS offer prices for FAQ fishmeal were in the range of US$585-590/tonne. CNF prices for China-bound fishmeal hovered at US$690/tonne, up by US$5-10 from the previous week.

 

 

4.  Outlook

 

Analysts said that fishmeal prices this year were unlikely to repeat the good showing of same period last year as the current market situation were influenced by:

• Bulk shipments of fishmeal arriving at Chinese ports were expected to rise in July and August. Thus, inventory levels were seen to hover at high levels in the coming months and restrain the upward movement of fishmeal prices.
   
• The possibility of a supply shortage similar to the situation last year was slim, as increased arrivals of container shipments of fishmeal were able to offset the fewer arrivals of bulk fishmeal vessels this year. 
   
• Some quantity of recent Peruvian fishmeal shipments was of inferior quality and was disposed of at comparatively lower prices. This would exert some pressure on prices of standard quality fishmeal.
   
• Floods in the southern regions and animal diseases were likely to curb fishmeal demand in the weeks ahead.

Analysts expected fishmeal prices in China to continue fluctuating within a narrow range in the near term. 

 

Weekly Transacted Prices of Imported Fishmeal at Major Chinese Ports
Port	Origin	Grade	Protein content	Price as of  Jun 19(RMB/tonne)	Price as of  Jun 26 (RMB/tonne)	Price change  (RMB/tonne)
Dalian	Peru	FAQ	64%	6,150	6,100	-50
Tianjin	Peru	FAQ	64%	6,150	6,100	-50
Shanghai	Peru	FAQ	64%	6,050	6,050	-
Huangpu	Peru	FAQ	64%	6,050	6,100	+50
Prices refer to port transaction prices and are for reference only

 

 

 

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