June 26, 2013

 

 

As it lifted its outlook on higher estimates for Spain and Black Sea region growers including Romania, Coceral grain industry association said that EU soft-wheat production is expected to climb 4.2%.

 

Farmers in the EU may reap 130.7 million tonnes of soft wheat this year from 125.4 million tonnes in 2012, Brussels-based Coceral wrote in an updated outlook, lifting its forecast from 127.8 million tonnes in March.

 

Spain, Europe's largest grain importer, had its fifth-wettest spring since 1947, with March-May rainfall 55% higher than usual, the country's weather office said. Rain in Romania and Hungary lifted soil moisture after drought hurt production last year.

 

"We're seeing in Europe that the weather is rather good," said Paul Gaffet, an analyst at Offre & Demande Agricole in Bourges, France. "More rainfall in Spain and the European side of the Black Sea."

 

Spain's soft-wheat production may climb to 6.29 million tonnes from 4.6 million tonnes, up from a March forecast for a harvest of 5.11 million tonnes, according to Coceral.

 

Romania's crop may advance to 6.83 million tonnes from 5.48 million tonnes, more than the 6.14 million tonnes forecast three months ago, while Hungary's harvest may climb to 5.04 million tonnes from 3.93 million tonnes, up from a March outlook of 4.31 million tonnes. Bulgaria may grow 4.63 tonnes of soft wheat from 4.38 million tonnes last year, the forecast showed.

 

Soft-wheat production in France, the EU's biggest grower, is expected to slip to 35.7 million tonnes from 35.8 million tonnes, compared with a March forecast for the crop to climb to 35.9 million tonnes.

 

German farmers will gather 23.6 million tonnes of soft wheat from 22.3 million tonnes last year, with the outlook's little changed, according to Coceral.

 

The outlook for Poland, which suffered frost damage last year, was raised by 136,000 tonnes to 9.2 million tonnes, from 8.37 tonnes harvested in 2012. UK production may drop to 11.8 million tonnes from 13.3 million tonnes, down from a March forecast of 12 million tonnes.

 

"The big problem is in the UK, where the area is reduced and the potential is less good," Gaffet said.

 

Coceral's forecast included Croatia, which is set to become the 28th EU member as of July 1, and where output is seen rising to 907,000 tonnes from 744,000 tonnes.

 

EU farm lobby Copa-Cogeca said in a separate forecast soft-wheat production in the 27-nation bloc will rise 3.2% to 126.9 million tonnes from 122.9 million tonnes on bigger crops in Germany, Spain, Romania and Hungary. The group forecast output will fall to 35 million tonnes in France.