Global soy stocks to reach 74 million tonnes

Global soy stocks may reach 60 million tonnes in the 2009-10 crop year to September, and are likely to hit 74 million tonnes during 2010-11, a Rabobank analyst said Thursday (June 24).

 

Strong soy harvests expected over the next two years may depress its prices as stocks rise, boosting soy and soyoil supplies, said John Baker, Rabobank's regional head in Asia for Food and Agribusiness Research and Advisory.

 

Strong demand from China is likely to push corn prices higher, however, and to limit any losses for soy and other oilseeds.

 

Soy prices may decline slightly to US$9 a bushel in September. In electronic trading, CBOT prices for soy to be delivered in July were up at US$9.635 a bushel around 0930 GMT.

 

However, the expected decline in soy prices will likely be limited.

 

China's rising demand for soy and other oilseeds are expected to support global prices, as China's imports of soy alone may reach 50 million tonnes during 2010-11. The China National Grain & Oils information Centre forecasts 2009-10 imports at 47.5 million tonnes.

 

Palm oil prices, which track soyoil prices because they are rival products in many export markets, may "fall off slightly in the next few months, but I expect crude palm oil to (continue to) trade above US$700 a tonne," Baker said.

 

The US corn crop may reach 13.5 billion bushels in 2010-11, up from 13.2 billion bushels in 2008-09, and Argentina's current corn harvest may yield 21 million tonnes. "Production in Brazil may reach 54.1 million tonnes in 2009-10, up 6.2% from the previous marketing year," he said.

 

Despite the large harvests, corn prices will be supported by demand from China as dry weather conditions hurt its domestic corn production.

 

Corn prices may "gradually trend upwards and reach US$4.10 a bushel in March 2011," Baker said. In electronic trading, CBOT corn prices were up US$0.015 at US$3.48 a bushel at 0934 GMT.