''It's a little uncertain right now if they're going to be able to really reach that kind of production level,'' Bryce Anderson, chief agricultural meteorologist at Telvent DTN, said today (June 25). ''If they don't get any rain by the second week of July, they're looking at some real problems,'' he said.

 

China's corn harvest faces the risk of damage as US inventories in the year ending 2010-2011 were estimated by USDA to drop to the lowest since 2006-2007. US, the world's largest corn grower, will account for 57% of global exports this year, according to USDA.

 

Production losses may push China to become a net corn importer for a second straight year, helping to support global prices, Takaki Shigemoto, an analyst at research and investment company JSC Corp. in Tokyo, said today (June 25).

 

''Current hotter and drier weather in northern China, which people said is more severe than last year, may be a key driver'' for the market, Shigemoto said. ''Less production will drive the country to import more grain.''

 

Corn futures gained, snapping four days of losses. The contract for December delivery added as much as 0.4% to US$3.66 a bushel in Chicago before trading at US$3.655.

 

''This is a scenario that I think is still a little bit concerning because right now we don't see that there's going to be a real widespread rainfall pattern in central and northeast China during the next week or so,' DTN's Anderson said.

 

The northeastern part of China, which accounts for most of the nation's corn output, has been having dry weather while in the south almost 30 million people in 10 provinces have been affected by storms, displacing 2.4 million people.

 

China's corn production this year may increase 2.5% from 2009 to 168 million tonnes as farmers boost plantings, the state-backed China National Grain & Oils Information Centre said this month. Northeastern China, including the provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang, accounted for almost 40% of the nation's corn output, according to a study by the Economic Research Service of the USDA.

 

As of June 17, the outstanding sales of US corn to China were 885,100 tonnes for delivery by August 31, and accumulated exports were 60,000 tonnes, the USDA said yesterday (June 24).

 

China may buy more than one million tonnes in the next 18 months, on top of what has already been purchased, Thomas Dorr, president of the US Grains Council said June 16.

 

The Asian nation's growing regions need rain this month as the corn crop enters its reproductive stage, which requires more water, determining the final yield, said Anderson, who has been DTN

s chief agricultural meteorologist since 1991.