June 25, 2009

 

CBOT Soy Outlook on Thursday: Up 2-4 cents on fundamentals, overnight theme

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures are expected to start Thursday's day session firmer, which would be in tune with the overnight theme, as fundamental strength underpins prices.

 

CBOT soybean futures are forecast to open 2 cents to 4 cents higher.

 

A quiet news front and mixed signals from outside markets aren't providing leadership for prices in early trade, leaving the market to key on tight old-crop inventories and uncertain new-crop output, analysts said.

 

Trader positioning ahead of Tuesday's key acreage and stocks report and the delivery period is expected to promote some cautious activity, with participants awaiting some fresh news before taking an aggressive stance in the market, analysts said.

 

Nearby futures are expected to garner support from the tight stock situation, but a lower-than-expected May crush and lackluster weekly export sales report did not provide any fresh support for the market.

 

A technical analyst said first resistance for November soybeans is seen at Wednesday's high of US$10.16 3/4 and then at US$10.25. First support is seen at US$10.00 and then at Wednesday's low of US$9.95.

 

DTN Meteorlogix said scattered showers and thunderstorms, with temperatures above normal, are on tap for the U.S. Midwest Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in the western area of the Midwest on Friday, while dry conditions or just a few light showers are anticipated in the eastern part of the Midwest.

 

Meanwhile, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move from west to east Saturday through Sunday. Dry conditions or just some light rain favors northern areas on Monday, with temperatures near to above normal Saturday before cooling to near below normal Sunday and Monday, Meteorlogix forecasts.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported total weekly soybean export sales were a net 243,400 metric tonnes for the week ended June 18. Sales for 2008-09 were a net 28,000 metric tonnes. Analysts had forecast sales between 50,000 and 450,000 metric tonnes.

 

Soymeal sales were a net 308,400 tonnes. Trade estimates ranged from 75,000 to 300,000 tonnes. Soyoil commitments were 8,200 metric tonnes. Analysts had forecast sales between zero and 20,000 tonnes.

 

U.S. soybean crushings totaled 146.1 million bushels in May, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau Thursday. On average, analysts anticipated a 148.8-million-bushel crush, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey. Crushings were up from 140.3 million bushels a month earlier, and down from 152.64 million bushels a year earlier. Soymeal stocks for May totaled 594,060 short tonnes, compared to the average estimate of 435,000. Soyoil stocks totaled 3.195 billion pounds. Analysts, on average, expected 3.220 billion pounds.

 

Taiwan's Breakfast Soybean Procurement Association bought 58,000 metric tonnes of soybeans from Bunge at US$3.43 a bushel over CBOT's November futures contract, a BSPA trader said Thursday. The shipments are expected to arrive in Taiwan between Aug. 21 and Sept. 4.

 

In overseas markets, soybean futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange settled slightly lower Thursday as supply concerns kept traders on the sidelines. The benchmark January 2010 soybean contract settled RMB5 a metric tonne lower at RMB3,631/tonne.

 

Crude Palm oil futures on Malaysia's derivative exchange ended higher Thursday on improved export data and spillover pressure from gains in soyoil and crude oil, market participants said. The benchmark September contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives ended MYR86 higher at MYR2,336 a metric tonne.