June 25, 2008

 

CBOT Soy Review on Tuesday: Extends consolidative phase; traders cautious

 

 

Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures ended lower Tuesday, continuing their consolidation of prior gains as traders take a cautious approach to activity amid market uncertainty.

 

July soybeans settled 14 cents lower at US$15.01 per bushel and November soybeans ended 11 1/2 cents lower at US$14.91. July soymeal settled US$2.70 lower at US$401.30 per short tonne. December soyoil finished 15 points lower at 64.87 cents per pound.

 

Apprehension of being long near record price levels heading toward Monday's key stocks and acreage reports encouraged another round of profit-taking, said Joe Victor, analyst with Allendale Inc. in McHenry, Ill.

 

The market has seemingly priced in enough bullishness, and traders are taking a wait-and-see approach as they look for what will serve as the next catalyst to push prices to challenge recent highs, analysts said.

 

Demand uncertainties tied to Argentine issues, and the transition of U.S. Midwest weather patterns and its effect on late plantings and crop development is providing enough unknowns in the market to entice traders into trimming some risk, analysts added.

 

End-of-the-month and quarter position evening, and a softening of crude oil prices during the session helped weigh on prices, a CBOT trader said. However, a tight supply and demand balance sheet remains an underlying theme to limit downside pressure, he added.

 

Heavy consolidation continues to be the theme of the market, with traders pointing to double-top resistance in the July contract as a bearish technical signal attracting selling interest. The July/November spread inverse narrowed by 2 1/2 cents.

 

The DTN Meteorlogix Weather forecast said for the last half of the week, forecast models have taken a look toward more rain in the central U.S. As a result, further concerns about crop quality and flooding are in line to develop. Rainfall of up to two inches or more will be noted by the end of the week in the western Midwest, and close to two inches over the eastern half of the region.

 

The 10-day outlook through July 4 features a new strong upper-atmosphere low pressure system forming in central Canada and dropping southward into either the Great Lakes or the Ohio Valley, Meteorlogix said. This pattern has the potential to bring wet and cool weather to the Midwest region during this time frame. This development, on top of a rainy five-day period, may mean further flooding concerns, Meteorlogix added.

 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced Tuesday private export sales of 165,000 metric tonnes of U.S. soybeans for delivery to China. Of that total, 110,000 tonnes are for delivery in the 2007-08 marketing year and 55,000 tonnes are for delivery in the 2008-09 marketing year.

 

In pit trades, buyers and sellers were scattered among various commission houses, with speculative fund selling estimated at 2,000 lots.

 

 

SOY PRODUCTS

 

Soy product futures ended lower in unison with soybeans. The absence of fresh fundamental news promoted a consolidative tonnee throughout the complex, analysts said.

 

July oil share ended at 44.02% and the July crush ended at 76 cents.

 

In soymeal trades, buyers and sellers were scattered among various commission houses, with speculative fund selling estimated at 1,000 lots.

 

In soyoil trades, buyers and sellers were scattered among various commission houses.